WMD: My column from last week, musing about economic uncertainty here and in the Emerald Isle. Text follows below:
Barry Link,
Vancouver Courier
Published: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
"You
guys should stop spending money on gadgets," said my father to my
brother and me last week. My brother was examining my sleek, video and
wireless-enabled MP3 player.
"You're going to need your money for gasoline and food."
My
father, in his 80s, doesn't understand why my brother and I are
interested in sleek, video and wireless-enabled MP3 players. But he
also went through the Depression, the unimaginably bleak 1930s which as
far as post-millennial public collective memory goes might as well have
been the 1830s. Having grown up on a farm where the family at least had
food but no cash, Dad is intimately acquainted with scarcity. His
warning about an impending need for thrift, a notion also long
disappeared from collective memory, is part of an increasing unease in
the land about our economic future. Canadians are wondering if they
should be scared.
Gas has gone up dramatically, with signs home heating fuel will
follow. Food is more expensive. Last week, I noticed at least two local
restaurants near my office had raised prices and, I suspect, cut back
on portions.
Car sales are plummeting. Transportation fees for
taxis and ferries are going up. Frequent Courier contributor Michael
McCarthy, our resident prophet of doom who's been writing about energy
issues for years, likes to hammer home the point that this is just the
beginning. It's going to get worse.
Oh joy.
I sensed
similar unease while visiting Ireland last month. The Irish, a pleasant
people who live on a rainy flat bog ringed by mountains and overrun
with what seem like hundreds of millions of sheep, are experiencing a
hangover after years of partying as the Celtic Tiger. They beat up
economically just about everyone for nearly a decade and a half,
building up high-tech industry by day while downing gallons of Guinness
and Jameson by night. Things were so good that Ireland's traditional
population loss through migration reversed itself. E.U. citizens,
especially from Eastern Europe, came in droves to take service jobs the
locals no longer wanted or needed, which is one reason why many of the
servers in restaurants during my trip were Polish, Slovakian or Italian.
Now,
the Irish told me, the party is over, and after spending a couple of
nights in County Mayo pubs, I believe when the Irish finally leave a
party, it really is over. A recession has emptied the kegs and reduced
the construction cranes over Dublin to a fraction of their number a few
years ago.
But is it a recession, and perhaps merely part of a
regular economic cycle, or is it something more profound? And is anyone
paying attention to the warning signs? In Westport, a tourist town of
4,000 near Ireland's west coast, the word "bustling" was the only
description that fit. The place was alive with pedestrians, cars,
trucks, tourist buses and cadres of German, American, and French
visitors. The French perpetually smoked, the Americans filled shopping
bags and the six Germans at breakfast when I entered the dining room
one morning in my B&B looked at me like they'd just committed a
major crime. I asked no questions.
If they'd done anything, maybe
it was simply to dare enjoy themselves at a time when the economic
wheel is turning. Or perhaps their denial was showing. The Irish, too,
appear to be in denial. Gas is well over $2 a litre, and has always
been pricier than here, but the Irish drive everywhere, and quickly,
which is something considering their roads are little wider than the
shoulders on the No. 1 Highway. The local newscasts and newspapers were
dominated by Ireland's stinging rejection through referendum of greater
integration with the E.U. But there was little official talk of
economic uncertainty, whereas some of the locals I met were nervous
about what lies ahead. This year, the Irish and other Europeans are
still going on vacation, moved forward by past financial momentum. But
next year, as jobs go, household budgets tighten and prices rise, all
bets are off. The Irish might soon want those service jobs back from
the immigrant Poles.
We have similar or even greater denial here.
In Kelowna last weekend, where everyone is highly pleased with the
expensive new bridge spanning Lake Okanagan, I was shocked by the
luxurious new condo towers going up. The ambition is to create a
Yaletown-like neighbourhood along the waterfront north of the city's
downtown.
This is hardly the stuff of food riots. If we're headed
to a peak-oil meltdown and a reduced standard of living my father would
recognize from 70 years ago, no one--from Galway to Gibsons--is
preparing for it.
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