WMD: Frequent Blinkit reader Bernard weighed on my previous post and column about the economic future for Ireland versus that of B.C. (He sent the comments in on email, since I've turned off comments until I'm satisfied Typepad has dealt with comment spam sufficiently.) We're not going to see a recession in Western Canada, he says, but Ireland might. His reasons:
1) Ireland has a current account deficit - and it has been high for some years now. We have a surplus.
2) Ireland uses the Euro, but is too small to impact the value of the Euro and therefore interest rates. Ireland had interest rates that have been too low for about ten years, this has lead to a horrific overpricing of housing because interest rates were too low. We are likely to have this problem in BC and Aberta for the next two to three years as the recession in Ontario and Quebec will lower interest rates in Canada.
3) Ireland has been running a budget deficit for years and a rising national debt. Canada has been the opposite. Ireland is going to have major governmental financial problems over the next few years. Canada meanwhile will be doing very well.
4) Ireland was built on subsidies coming from the EU that has now come to an end. In Canada we have no one funding internal subsidy. Canada is also a major global destination of investment dollars.
All I can add is good thing I didn't buy any vacation property in Westport. My thanks to Bernard for the comment. He, of course, is currently best known for singlehandedly boosting fertility rates in B.C. and for his most recent campaign to improve what he says is the miserable state of hospital food in this province.
Today's bLINKit: Apple gets more massive free publicity from a product-blind media, says John Dvorak. Kind of like the Obama campaign.
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